stublog-stubos

Summer Plans

2011-06-09T11:13:00.000-07:00

This is the waterfront on Alta Lake in Whistler. My plans are to put a dock out there and sit there during the summer months. There is a lot of history about this area that predates Whistler Blackcomb Ski area. Year round enjoyment only 1.5 hour drive from Vancouver is going to be hard to beat. Now if it would only stop raining...

The Promoter

2009-10-01T21:18:00.000-07:00

The Promoter

Artisan™ Portrait of the Promoter (ESTP)
There are lots of Promoters, maybe ten or so percent of the population, and life is never dull around them. In a word, they are men and women of action. When a Promoter is present, things begin to happen: the lights come on, the music plays, the games begin. Clever and full of fun, Promoters live with a theatrical flourish which makes even the most routine events seem exciting. Not that they waste much time on routine events. In work and in play, Promoters demand new activities and new challenges. Bold and daring at heart, and ever-optimistic that things will go their way, Promoters will take tremendous risks to get what they want, and seem exhilarated by walking close to the edge of disaster. Because of this, they make the very best trouble-spot administrators and negotiators, and they can be outstanding entrepreneurs, able to swing deals and kick-start enterprises in a way no other type can.
Promoters also have a hearty appetite for the finer things of life, the best food, the best wine, expensive cars, and fashionable clothes. And they are extremely sophisticated in social circles, knowing many, many people by name, and knowing how to say just the right thing to most everyone they meet.
Charming, confident, and popular, Promoters delight their friends and investors with their endless supply of stories and jokes. At the same time, these smooth operators are usually something of a mystery to others. While they live in the moment and lend excitement - and unpredictability - to all their relationships, they rarely let anyone get really close to them. They have a low tolerance for authority and commitment, and are likely to leave situations where they are expected to toe the mark, or where they must play second fiddle. Promoters understand well the maxim, "He who travels fastest, travels alone," although they are not likely to be lonely for long, since their boldness and sense of adventure tends to make them highly attractive to many other people.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Ernest Hemingway, John F. Kennedy, Donald Trump, Madonna, George C. Patton, Evita Peron, Winston Churchill, Grace Slick, and Teddy Roosevelt are examples of the Promoter Artisan temperament.

Ceremony - Radiohead Version

2009-06-19T21:09:00.000-07:00

Guilt is a strong driver in my Judeo-Christian upbringing. Greeks are as big on guilt as any Roman Catholic or Jewish family. So it is with me. I feel guilty for largely ignoring this blog. Please follow me on Twitter if you want a stream of what I'm up to and interested in. I find much of my life I still like to keep private, but otherwise I am pretty good at sending pictures and links. Again, back to the guilt. I think English people are pretty good at guilt and sadness. I recently saw a the brilliant movie "Control" about the life of Ian Curtis, frontman of Joy Division and tragic suicide at the age of 23. I was a big fan of New Order and Really like Raiohead. Here is a Ceremony, an early New Order song performed by Radiohead. A guilty pleasure.

Thailand Unrest Timeline - Coles Notes Version

2009-04-13T11:03:00.000-07:00

This was sent to me today by Bryan Stadelmann. Bryan has been living in China for the past six years and has been working in the oil and gas logistics sector. I always find his insights on Asia enlightening and this particular piece on the quickly worsening situation in Thailand is very much appreciated so I am sharing it.
I used "Coles Notes" in the title because that's my vintage from College days and I hate the idea of "Idiots Guide" to anything.

Bryan Stadelmann wrote:

If you're like me, you have been looking at the Thailand mess with curiosity. Hasn't this protesting been going on for what seems like forever? Who's in the "right?" Who's in the "wrong." And why don't people in Thailand like their airports or their tourism industry? Being in Asia, and liking Thailand as a great vacation get-a-way, I've been trying to keep up with what is going on, but found myself awfully confused. The other day I was trying to explain what is happening there and came to realize I had no real understanding of the events that lead up to today.

So, I set to read up on the last 3 years, and figure out the timeline of who did what, when, and why. Since I hadn't understood the situation, I figure that some of you might also be in the dark and appreciate the following timeline and background:

In short, they're all a bunch of professional politicians. There are two different 'sides' that are each accusing the other of voter fraud and corruption (among others). What makes Thailand different is that in this democracy, the people there tend to be involved in the political process, and appear to be more easily swayed by 'their' politician's rhetoric.

===========

Thaksin Shinawatra was a successful telecom entrepreneur and one of the richest people in Thailand.

Thaksin Shinawatra was elected in 2001, and reelected in 2005 with the highest voter turnout in Thai history. He is behind the current protests and openly pushing for a revolution. Whether for him or against him, Thaksin has been much of the reason for Thailand's political mess for the last 3 years.

Pros:
Thaksin introduced a range of partly effective and highly popular policies to alleviate rural poverty.
He launched the country's first universal healthcare program, the 30-baht scheme, as well as drastic social order and drug suppression campaigns

Cons:
His government has been accused (and often convicted) of "corruption, authoritarianism, treason, conflicts of interest, acting non-diplomatically
and muzzling the press."
Thaksin was accused of tax evasion, lèse majesté and selling national assets to international investors.
Independent bodies, including Amnesty International criticized Thaksin's human rights record.

=========

January 2001 - Thaksin won the first election for Prime Minister under the 1997 Constitution.
This election was called the most open, corruption-free election in Thai history.
The subsequent government was the first in Thai history to complete a 4-year term.

February 6, 2005 - Thaksin was reelected in a a landslide victory.
This election had the highest voter turnout (60.7%) in history.
The election had wide spread vote buying and electoral violence
Thaksin's government was accused of violating election law by abusing state power in presenting new projects in a bid to seek votes.

January 23, 2006 - Thaksin's family nets about US$1.88 billion, tax-free, from the sale of one of Thailand's largest conglomerates to a Singapore company
This sale sparked a series of angry demonstrations in the capital.
The pressure against Thaksin continues to grow as he becomes accused of corruption and selling an asset of national importance to a foreign entity.

February 24, 2006 - Thaksin announced a House dissolution and schedules a general election for April 2, 2006.

February 27, 2006 - The opposition parties announce to boycott the election after Thaksin refused to sign a pledge to implement constitutional reforms.
Abhisit Vejjajiva is quoted saying that "under the current circumstance, a fair general election was unlikely."

April 2, 2006 - Thaksin and his TRT party 'wins' the election
Opposition voters used the "abstain" option on their ballot papers to reject Thaksin and his party's candidates
The election is not seen as legitimate due to the widespread use of the abstain option
40 TRT candidates failed to win the minimum 20% required in an uncontested election

May 8, 2006 - The election was declared invalid by Thailand's Constitutional Court, because the positioning of the voting booths violated voter privacy.
A new election was ordered and set for October 15, 2006

September 19, 2006 - While Thaksin is visiting New York, the military takes over the government in a bloodless military coup.
The King is made head of state, and they said elections would be held soon to return democracy to the country.
Thaksin remains in exile, living in London with his family

October 2006 - Surayud Chulanont became the interim Prime Minister until January 2008.

May 30, 2007 - Thaksin and over 100 members in Thaksin's TRT party are banned from politics for 5 years, based on bribes during the April 2006 election
Surayud states Thaksin is free to return to Thailand, and he would personally guarantee his safety

January 2008 - Thaksin's wife returns to Thailand and is arrested for violation of stock-trading and land sale laws.
She is released and told not to leave the country

-------------

January 29, 2008 - Samak Sundaravej is elected Prime Minister by parliamentary vote (310 to 163)
Samak's has very close ties to Thaksin's (he earlier appointed Samak to his cabinet)
It is widely accepted that Samak is a puppet for Thaksin, who is effectively ruling Thailand through Samak

February 2008 - Thaksin returns to Thailand after 17 months in exile. He is arrested on arrival for corruption, and released on bail

August 10, 2008 - Thaksin and his wife flew to Beijing for the Summer Olympics, in violation of their bail terms.
Thaksin seeks political asylum in Britain
Warrants are issued for Thaksin's arrest

September 2008 - Wearing Yellow Shirts, Anti-Samak/Thaksin Protests erupt and effectively shut down Bangkok.

September 9, 2008 - The courts convict Samak of being employed by two cooking shows while in office, in violation of the law.
Samak is removed from power by the Constitutional Court of Thailand

----------------

September 17, 2008 - Somchai Wongsawat is elected Prime Minister by the National Assembly,
Somchai's brother-in-law is Thaksin Shinawatra.
Somchai is also seen as a proxy for Thaksin

October 7, 2008 - Many people become angry that Thaksin is now effectually ruling Thailand through Somchai
30,000 Anti-Somchai/Thaksin Protesters block off the Parliament building for 6 weeks
Somchai is unable to access his offices

October 21, 2008 - The Supreme Court finds Thaksin and his wife guilty of a land purchase (conflict of interest) and are sentenced in absentia to 2 years in jail.

November 25, 2008 - Anti Somchai/Thaksin protesters wearing yellow shirts, shut down Bangkok's airports

December 2nd, 2008 - The Supreme Court convicts Somchai of corruption and neglecting his duties while working in the justice department 8 years ago.
Constitutional Court of Thailand barred Somchai from politics for a minimum of 5 years
Somchai's party (PPP) was disolved by the courts due to election fraud (vote buying)
Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat resigns and the protesters occupying the airports agreed to withdraw

December 17th, 2008 - Leader of the opposition, Abhisit Vejjajiva becomes Prime Minister
Abhisit has been a vocal critic of Thaksin for years
The Army commander (also the co-leader of the 2006 coup) was widely reported to have coerced many MPs to defect to Abhisit's political party
-----------

March 2009 - Thaksin (in exile) publicly claims Abhisit conspired with the military and others in government to remove Thaksin from power in the 2006 coup and had bribed and coerced many members of Parliament in order to ensure that Abhisit became Prime Minister.
Thaksin's supporters believe Mr Abhisit was illegitimately elected Prime Minister after the military coerced several MPs defected to his side
Red-Shirt Protesters begin rallying in Bangkok, demanding Abhisit Vejjajiva's resignation and the dissolution of the government

April 2009 - In nightly phone addresses from exile, Thaksin calls for a revolution, and urges soldiers to join his campaign to overthrow the Government.

April 11, 2009 - Anti Abhisit government / Pro-Thaksin Protesters (wearing red shirts) break into the hotel & venue site of the ASEAN summit,
The 4th ASEAN summit is canceled
Visiting foreign leaders are airlifted out of the country to protect them from mobs.
Protesters demand the Abhisit's resignation as well as the other conspirators responsible for the 2006 military coup and
for electing Abhisit Prime Minister

April 12 - Abhisit declared a state of emergency

Black Swan Hunting: Understanding What's Happened

2009-04-12T09:48:00.000-07:00

Like most people who consider themselves market participants, I am trying to find a road map for what happens next as far as the economic crisis and meltdown in the banking sector. Bulls make money, Bears make money and Pigs get slaughtered will remain true. Forming a strategy for the way things are requires that one ascertains what is really going on, what's happened and planning an investment and business stratagem based on this knowledge. Needless to say this is a lot of work and looking for insights is what I spend my time doing and sharing some of what I find and agree with is what I am doing here.

Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" with Nobel Prize laureate Psychologist Dr. Daniel Kahneman at DLD (Digital, Life, Design) in Munich in January 2009 with fascinating discussion on the current crisis and the predictable nature of unpredictability of certain risks and the failure of our banking system and regulators to take them into account. Very interesting reading and a very interesting talk.

During my brief stint and the University of British Columbia as an Arts undergrad between pints at the Pit Pub and Deke Beer Gardens, I had a gap in my classes and needed an elective credit. The only course that allowed me to has Tuesdays and Thursdays with no classes was Psych 200 Experimental Psychology, which sounded cool. For the first semester the course was lectured by Dr. Kahneman, I had no idea who he was of how important his works are to the field of economics. Shortly after the course was over Dr. Kahneman moved on to U of C Berkeley and now Princeton and I moved on to opening a Pizza Franchise (Panagopoulos 2-for-1 Pizza, now Panago, and the world of low-finance at Canarim Investments, now Canaccord Capital).

Black Marmots in Mongolia

2009-01-20T20:44:00.000-08:00

I've been going through a bunch of footage of video I have taken over the past couple of years from my trips to Mongolia. I have inserted here a small section from a geology field trip I took to a place in Central Mongolia on a Petroleum exploration block called Nyalga. The story of the "Black Marmot" is told by my friend Erdene, since it the most interesting bit, unless you really like rocks and we talk about what petroleum reservoir rock looks like and geologist Ken Ellison whom I was with melts some using Hydrochloric Acid. Pretty cool stuff.

I am working on a longer version of this as a documentary and will let everyone know when it is ready. Many hours of video to edit.

Of course, I have no pictures of these fabled Marmots, but we've been assured they do exist and likely are that color due to the presence of oil in the ground. A good thing, if that is what you are looking for and not a bad story to tell. Handling Marmot pelts is also the prime way to contract Bubonic Plague, so although Erdene tried to convince me they make good eating, I didn't push the idea of trying that part of the local culture. It is beleived that the Black Death originated in the Gobi Desert and was responsible for killing a third of the population of Europe during the 13th century.

Mongolians are into their stories. One of the interesting books I have read is "The Secret history of Mongolia" (english translation, of course) which is a 13th Century account of how a young man named Temujen went from being a hunted outcast to becoming Chinngis Khan, "Universal Ruler" by uniting the Mongol Hords.

Of course, referred to as Genghis Khan in the West, sort of like Peking was what we called Beijing before someone pointed out that it was a real British way of saying it and wrong. There still isn't any "Beijing Duck" so Peking has stuck for that.

The best book I have read that has really given me an appreciation of the history of Mongolia and the Mongolian people has been Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World and I Highly recommend picking up a copy.

Start Making Sense of Oil: Talking Head with a Brain

2008-12-27T13:55:00.000-08:00

It's no great news flash that the price of oil has about collapsed in the last few months. Any trip to the corner gas station will let those who still drive SUV's (including myself) feeling nostalgic for when we didn't expect the fill-up to cost the same as the lease payment. There are many analysts, economists and pundits out there that will claim to know or explain why this is. If you want to lose money (if you have any left) listen to these people. I just found an article by David Byrne of the Talking Heads and solo fame, of whose work I am a fan, who has provided an honest and insightful reasoning why the price of oil is down to 5 year lows.

I became aware of the Talking Heads music when one of my friends put on the album Fear of Music in 1979 when I was in grade 8 and hanging out at their ski cabin in Whistler. It was also around the time I partied with booze and pot and girls so I have clouded yet fond memories of the time. I soon owned all of their albums and having read the liner notes (something I miss from getting music from the Internet) that I discovered the music of Eno, Robert Fripp and other artists that they in turn collaborated with (many cool people like U2, Peter Gabriel, David Bowie, King Crimson and many others) which very much have influenced my tastes over the next 3 decades (egad!).

I was fortunate to have attended the Stop Making Sense tour when it came to Vancouver in 1983, and the film of the same name is one of my favorite concert films.

What does a New Wave band have to do with Oil?

Byrne gives a very matter-of-fact story about what he sees going on. I see his approach being similar in thinking to Peter Lynch's approach to investing, "Invest in what you know". Use your common sense and local knowledge to beat the street.

Byrne's "Gas Wars" Journal Entry reads:

Here’s a wacky but not altogether unrealistic alternative explanation. I remember as a kid there would be 2 — sometimes 3 — gas stations on some street corners in suburban Baltimore County. Occasionally there would be what came to be known as gas wars, in which one station would lower its prices to drive more business its way, and the others would have to follow suit. Usually the station that initiated this “war” was a big company like Esso, Texaco, or Amoco. The Seven Sisters. The indie gas dealer across the street was then forced to lower his prices too, or risk losing all his business, though the indie owner didn’t have the deep pockets to allow him to survive when the prices got so low that they didn’t cover his overhead. The little guy would then get driven out of business, and the big company’s station would pop their prices back to where they were before the gas war.

"...Call me conspiracy-minded or a crackpot, but why should OPEC behave differently than Exxon, Shell and Amoco? As soon as the rival oil producers stop production and go bankrupt the big boys will swoop in, take their corner and jack the price back up."

Well, now a lot of the news about the economy and investing has stopped making sense and along comes David Byrne to shed some practical light on one aspect of what's going on. His view is supported by the history of the oil industry. The book The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Powers Daniel Yergin's 800-page history of the global oil industry from the 1850s through 1990.

"The Prize benefited from extraordinary timing: published in October 1990, two months after the invasion of Kuwait ordered by Saddam Hussein and three months before the U.S.-led coalition unleashed the Gulf War to oust Iraqi troops from that country, the book's theme of the historical centrality of what its subtitle calls "the epic quest for oil, money, and power" was in tune with the zeitgeist; the book became a number-one bestseller in the United States and won a Pulitzer Prize."
-Wikipedia (source)

In The Prize, the cycle of boom and bust in the oil business is documented well. Now we are in the bust part of the cycle and whoever manages to stay solvent (pardon the pun) will emerge on top given the inevitable growth in global demand and falling low-cost supply.

Making Sense to me and I will place my bets accordingly and wait. Hats off to David Byrne for explaining it well.

Best Commercial Ever

2008-12-18T09:15:00.000-08:00

This is more entertaining and well written than 99% of TV sitcom's.
Sure, it's full of trite man/woman humor but it's funny because it's true.

IF THE SHOW FITS! W Dodges Some Size 12's

2008-12-14T14:27:00.001-08:00

Hard to Beleive this one. From now on press conferences will be held with journalists will have to check their shoes at the door. My guess is with the state of the economy, that won't be hard as we will all be threadbare and shoeless soon enough. Interesting that the big statue of Saddam that the US Marines had staged to tear down and drag away was beaten with shoes as one of the ultimate insults the Iraqi's can bestow. Still, W ducked pretty good, I bet the same thing would have hit Bill Clinton or George Senior Square, and Ronnie would have fired back!

It is hard to imagine a Presidency that has gone out as downtrodden as this one. Some are comparing it to Hurbert Hoover's exit. For the electorate it must be nice to have someone to blame and forget that it was the voters that kept W and the rest of them in the Whitehouse in 2004. It will be interesting to see how Karl Rove and others who claim to want to rebuild the GOP will be treated over the next couple of years. I think the criticism By Colin Powell is Valid, See below:

2008-11-27T07:01:00.000-08:00

PURE SILLINESS

Akbar and Jeff aka George and Steve in Istanbul Bazar trying on Fez's.
I found this on Youtube and it is in either Portuguese or Spanish

"The Fez cap originated in Ancient Greece and Damascus Like City-States ^[3] and was subsequently worn by the Medieval Byzantine Greeks.^[4]^[5] The Ottoman Turks adopted the Fez from the Greeks^[6]^[7]^[8] during their conquest of Byzantine Anatolia. During the reign of the Sultan Mahmud Khan II (1808-39), a European code of dress gradually replaced the traditional robes worn by members of the Ottoman court. The change in costume was soon emulated by the public and senior civil servants, followed by the members of the ruling intelligentsia and the emancipated classes throughout the Ottoman Empire. While European style coats and trousers were gradually adopted, this change did not extend to headwear. Peaked or broad brimmed headdresses such as the top hat did not meet the Islamic requirement that men should press their heads to the ground when praying. Accordingly the Sultan issued a firman (royal decree) that the checheya headgear in a modified form would become part of the formal attire of the Turkish Empire irrespective of his subjects' religious sects or millets.In post-Ottoman Turkey, the fez was discouraged & ultimately banned under the leadership of the revered Mustafa Kemal (Ataturk) through the Hat Law in 1925 & the Law Relating to Prohibited Garments in 1934.[9]" -Wikipedia

Classic Muppets

2008-11-25T03:56:00.000-08:00

Sometimes when I can't sleep due to jet lag, i like to visit youtube and find old stuff that i liked as a kid. This one is a classic> Mana mana...

2008-11-19T17:18:00.000-08:00

Here I am in front of the gate to the University of Istanbul.

Istanbul hasn't changed much in the 20 years or so since I was here. Back then I was with my parents who had roped me into coming with them on a bus tour from Athens. It was about 40 old Greeks and me, all of them smoking heavily in the bus and not willing to open a window in case they catch a chill. Still, it was educational and I learned a lot about the place. Of course the Hellenes were still carping about "Constantinople" falling to the heathens and when would they someday gain it back. That generation is still brainwashed by their school texts. They were actually surprised that the Turk hotels were nice, the food decent etc. I remember my mom talking about how the Turks want to grab the Greek Islands. Evidence that they invaded Cyprus in 1974. Of course, the fact that a Coupe was being staged by ethnic Greek Cypriots planning to ask for annexation by the then Fascist dictatorship in Greece wasn't just cause for the Turks to walk in and partition the Island. Not in the mind of Angela, my mom. To the Greeks in Vancouver at the time it was all the work of the evil Americans, who supported the Turks. Or at least didn't do anything to stop them. This is how the story went on the steps of the old Courthouse when as a kid, I attend the protest organized by the Hellenic Community. I think it's still the longest UN peacekeeping mission going. Cyprus is on my list of place to visit. Of course, now the Greek part is happening, a party, wealthy and the Turkish part is in a time warp. Kind of like Istanbul. Looking forward to Athens on Friday.

Spitzer Making a Comeback?

2008-11-17T09:35:00.001-08:00

hyp⋅o⋅crite
[hip-uh-krit] –noun
1. a person who pretends to have virtues, moral or religious beliefs, principles, etc., that he or she does not actually possess, esp. a person whose actions belie stated beliefs.
2. a person who feigns some desirable or publicly approved attitude, esp. one whose private life, opinions, or statements belie his or her public statements.

It seems that Elliot Spitzer is trying to make a comeback. Here is the text of the WSJ opinion piece that appears today:

"Shame is fleeting in modern America, so it was probably inevitable that Eliot Spitzer would seek to return as an arbiter of everyone else's moral behavior. But even we have to admit to being a little surprised by the rapidity and audacity of his attempted self-rehabilitation, courtesy of an op-ed in Sunday's Washington Post. This guy makes Bill Lerach seem remorseful."

I'M RICK JAMES BITCH!

2008-11-16T20:07:00.000-08:00

Bjorn sent me this bumper sticker. He knew that of all his weird friends, I am the one who would actually put it on one of my prized collection. I kept it in period by slapping it on the most recent acquisition, a 1982 911SC Targa, in Guards Red.
The kind of car you you drive while doing rails off of the Mary Jane Girls while they're doing you. For those that are bewildered by this, it has to do with a genius spoof by Dave Chapelle about Charlie Murhpy (Eddie's brother) hangin' with Rick James at places like Studio 54. Hard to find a good version on Youtube, but this will give you and idea:

This is what the rest of the car looks like.

Here's some stuff that makes sense.

2008-11-12T21:24:00.000-08:00

I hope President-elect Obama watches and listens to these guys. Really interesting interview with Bill Maher and Christopher Hitchens on Charlie Rose

Travels Here and there

2008-11-12T19:37:00.000-08:00

I have been fortunate enough to have gotten around this big world of ours and enjoy some pretty far away places, at least far from Vancouver.
Here is my slide show from my trip to Cambodia and the Ankor Wat temples in 2007.

Dr. Stubos or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Market

2008-10-28T11:12:00.000-07:00

Dear Stublog readers (this means you, or it soon will as you are mesmorized by my musings), I hope to give you a glimpse of the joy and horror, and sometimes general malaise of my existence through writing. I have not sat to write down my thoughts about the Market or anything for quite a number of years. I now feel compelled to start expressing myself through the Stublog about Money, Markets, Collectable Cars, Fine Wine, Art and Good Times. Once in a while I will stray in to the realm of politics and religion but that is blanketed by the first item, Money because that's what it boils down to anyway MOST OF THE TIME.